Grand National: Press betting expert's verdict on the big race

1. Thunder and Roses: Unlucky last year when taken out by a loose horse but current form suggests lack of ability is likely to be the downfall. Could not be fancied.

2. Blaklion: Finished fourth in 2017 and as a nine-year-old could prove stronger this time. However, he has gone up 9lbs and with the ground likely to be much more testing, there is a stamina query given the fact he faded in the later stages. At 14/1 there are better alternatives.

3. Anibale Fly: Stayed on into third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, suggesting a greater test of stamina would not go amiss. Due to go up 9lbs too so would appear to be nicely weighted. However, has no experience of these fences and took a bad fall in the Irish Gold Cup in February so there are enough doubts at 12/1.

4. The Last Samuri: 10lbs higher than when second in 2016 and only 2lbs lower than last year when trounced by 66 lengths. Ought to complete but probably only into a midfield position.

5. Valseur Lido: Has not shown enough this year to merit consideration.

6. Total Recall: Won three on the bounce prior to falling in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when still in contention. Could not be dismissed out of hand on that one run but would prefer to watch rather than wager over these fences on likely heavy ground.

7. Alpha des Obeaux: Finished a well beaten last of four in the Many Clouds Chase at this track in December and nothing in other recent form suggests Saturday will be his day.

8. Perfect Candidate: Pulled up in the 2017 race and has run well in only one of four starts since. Not a striking candidate let alone a perfect one.

9. Shantou Flyer: Another to have pulled up in the race last year and although is 3lbs lower this time and has run reasonably in recent starts, has too much to prove at the track and distance for comfort.

10. Tenor Nivernais: A tailed-off 17th last year and his two starts since have been a non-completion and a 41 length last of six. Enough said.

11. Carlingford Lough: An 11-year-old who would have to improve out of all recognition on this year’s form to have a say in the outcome.  

12. Delusionofgrandeur: His performance in the Edinburgh National in February suggests this trip is too far for him. Likely to be up there for a while before dropping out of contention.

13. Tiger Roll: Won the National Hunt Challenge Cup over four miles at Cheltenham last season and the Cross Country Chase there in March. Stamina does not appear to be an issue and although only an eight-year- old, must have a chance. Shortlisted.

14. Regal Encore: Very hit and miss; wins and non-completions seem to come alike but a never-nearer eighth last year may be bettered on tougher ground if ridden patiently once more. Each-way squeak.

15. Vieux Lion Rouge: Seventh and sixth in the last two renewals of this race but well beaten each time; whether slower ground will make the field come back or him getting thrashed by an even bigger margin remains to be seen but may sneak into the first five.

16. Chase The Spud: Won the Midlands National last year but his most recent starts have been non-completions at the Welsh National and the Eider Chase at Newcastle. Not likely to be good enough.

17. Warriors Tale: Finished second over three miles at Doncaster in his last outing and this nine-year-old is now taking a steep rise in distance. On the face of it, anything could happen, but respected trainer Paul Nicholls is not a chancer and at 50/1, the price is big enough to consider a small each-way interest.

18. Seeyouatmidnight: Finished second in the Scottish Grand National two years ago but has had only four races since. The limited evidence points to him being able to stay but if you have drawn him in the office sweepstake you will have got far better odds than the 14/1 on offer with the bookmakers. Better value lies elsewhere.

19. Gas Line Boy: Fifth in the Grand National last year and his win in the Grand Sefton in December over these fences on heavy ground bodes well for the stamina test that awaits. 12 years of age is a little old but still holds a solid each-way chance.

20. The Dutchman: Bled from the nose in February’s Grand National Trial at Haydock so that performance can be excused but it means punters are struggling for clues as to whether he will stay this marathon trip. At 25/1, there are bigger-priced horses that carry the same risk, so he can be passed over.

21. Pleasant Company: Made a jolting blunder on the second circuit last year that probably attributed to his eventual ninth-place finish but there has been no proof since that he will improve sufficiently to vault into the first five. Unlikely winner.

22. Ucello Conti: 1lb lower than when being distracted by an errant jump from a rival and unseating last year. Performed woefully in his last race at Gowran Park without which he would have had a sound chance. As it is, that effort leaves him with questions to answer.

23. Saint Are: Three previous attempts at the Grand National have resulted in 2nd, pulled up and 3rd but the major worry (apart from his age - 12-years-old) is that the pulled up attempt came on the softest ground and he has not proved himself in the conditions in other races. Stamina likely to ebb away long before the end.

24. Walk In The Mill: Stepped up to 3m 1 furlong in heavy ground for the first time at Haydock last time out and was promptly pulled up. That effort does not augur well for his chances on Saturday.Too speculative.

25. Raz De Maree: This 13-year-old unseated his rider last year when trying to avoid a fallen horse but his victory in the Welsh National over heavy ground proves he loves a slog. Age is not on his side but his grinding attrition attribute makes him another for an each-way shortlist.

26. I Just Know: Hiked up to a 3m 6 furlong trip for the Yorkshire National at Catterick in January on soft ground and won by 15 lengths. That effort could not be more promising but he went up 14lbs as a consequence and whether he is ready for the demands of this race is open to debate. Could not be ruled out lightly nonetheless.

27. Virgilio: Has not run since December having had wind surgery but there are too many doubts on this ground and distance anyway. Would be a shock winner.

28. Baie de Iles: She looks like a promising stayer and will like the ground but no seven-year-old has won the race since 1940. One to monitor but likely to do better in future editions of the race.

29. Maggio: A 13-year-old that has not shown enough in the last two years to warrant consideration.

30.  Pendra: This 10-year-old has only ever contested 17 races, one of which was coming a distant 13th in the race two years ago. Hardly a compelling profile.

31. Buywise: Another contender that was hammered by a wide margin in the race two years ago and has no other form at the trip to overturn that negative impression.

32. Childrens List: Has run twice in the last 16 months and pulled up in the latest race. Easily opposed.

33. Lord Windermere: Three of his last six races have been over the Grand National fences; his best effort a seventh place this time last year. Too much to prove.

34. Captain Redbeard: Ran over the Grand National fences in December where being hampered by a loose horse in the latter stages put paid to his chance; two decent efforts at Haydock over heavy ground since then but with stamina for this distance not yet proven, 22/1 rates as being too tight to warrant speculation.

35. Houblon Des Obeaux: Finished 10th in the race 12 months ago and has not done anything since then to think a nine-place improvement is on the cards. Look elsewhere.

36. Blessed The Wings: Easily beat Tiger Roll in Cheltenham’s Cross Country Chase in December before falling in the race that rival won in March; but a non-finish in the Irish Grand National over ground similar to what he will encounter today is harder to forgive. That said, 66/1 is a big price and he could be worth a small flutter.

37.  Milansbar: Ran with credit at both the Eider and Midlands Grand National over this ground and distance but the handicapper has probably nailed him with a mark of 143. Scrapping at the bottom of the each-way payouts in around fifth or sixth place is a reasonable estimate to his finishing position, in which case, 33/1 is about right for his chance.

38. Final Nudge: Beaten by 15 lengths by Raz De Maree in the Welsh National but has a 13lbs pull with that opponent; was well beaten at Cheltenham last month and cheekpieces return to aid concentration. Has an outside chance.

39. Double Ross: Was pulled up in the race two years ago and is now a 12-year-old. Very hard to fancy.

40. Road to Riches: Was a very good horse prior to falling in Ireland two years ago; thereafter, his handicap mark has been in decline as performances have worsened. Less road to riches more fast-track to the poorhouse if you back this one.

Tipster Verdict: Raz de Maree is definitely going to be suited to the ground and in a race where there might not be too many finishers, Bet365’s 25/1 at ¼ odds 1-5 makes the most appeal. Other selections for the staking plan are Tiger Roll (Skybet: 16/1 ⅕  odds 1-6) and at bigger prices, Warriors Tale (Bet365: 50/1 ¼ odds 1-5) and Blessed The Wings (Paddy Power: 66/1 ⅕ odds 1-6).